US Midterms Draw Near With Control of Congress and Trump’s Final Two Years at Stake

Americans vote Nov. 3 in midterm elections that will determine which party controls Congress for the rest of President Donald Trump’s second term. Early voting is already under way in several states, including Texas, where in-person voting began Oct. 19.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats and more than 30 governorships.

What’s at stake

Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers. In the Senate, they have a 53-47 advantage. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats for a 51-49 majority. A 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control, since Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win a majority.

Midterms are often treated as a referendum on the sitting president. Since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of about 26 House seats, according to one political scientist cited by Al Jazeera, along with a handful in the Senate. Past results do not determine outcomes, however, and analysts note that fewer House seats are competitive this year than in some previous cycles.

What the forecasts say

Nonpartisan forecasters see Democrats as favored to win the House. Decision Desk HQ’s Oct. 26 forecast gave Democrats a 79% chance of winning the chamber and projected 238 Democratic seats. The Cook Political Report moved 19 additional House races toward Democrats in its final major update and none toward Republicans, according to a regional news summary.

The Senate is closer. The same Decision Desk HQ forecast gave Democrats a 57% chance of winning control. Other forecasters have described the chamber as a toss-up, and some prediction markets have favored Republican control at various points this year. Democrats must win several seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, or Kansas, to reach a majority. Races in North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, and Michigan are also seen as pivotal.

Forecasts are probabilities, not predictions of a certain result, and polls and models can miss in either direction.

Issues shaping the vote

Reuters reported that President Trump’s low popularity, voter frustration over the cost of living, and disputes over immigration are defining the election. A Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at 31%, the lowest of his presidency. The same poll found that half of registered voters named the cost of living as the most important factor in how they will vote. Voters also pointed to healthcare, gasoline, food, and housing costs. The average price of diesel stood at $6.32, up $2.70 from a year earlier, as energy prices have risen amid conflict in the Middle East. Inflation was 3.7% in September, and the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week.

Immigration remains deeply divisive. Supporters of the administration’s approach emphasize border security and enforcement. Critics have pointed to fatal encounters involving federal immigration agents in Maine, Minnesota, and Texas, and Democrats condemned a federal raid on the Washington home of Rep. Ilhan Omar this month. Other issues cited by voters include healthcare access, abortion policy, technology and artificial intelligence data centers, and the national debt.

The parties’ pitches

Democrats are campaigning on an affordability agenda and promising oversight of the administration, including investigations tied to allegations of corruption. Republicans generally emphasize lower taxes, border enforcement, and reduced federal spending, and argue that their policies support economic growth. Both parties have faced internal friction. Several incumbents lost primaries this year, and NPR has reported that Democratic nominees in some races have acknowledged shortcomings in their own party’s leadership.

What a change in control would mean

The president’s name is not on the ballot, but the results would affect his ability to govern. A Democratic House or Senate could use committee powers to launch investigations, scrutinize cabinet officials, and influence government spending. Trump would retain the power to veto legislation. If Democrats won the Senate, they would also gain a role in confirming judges and administration officials. If Republicans retain both chambers, they would have a clearer path for nominations and legislative priorities through January 2029.

When results will be known

Results will come in over the course of election night as polls close across multiple time zones. Because of the number of competitive races and differences in how states count ballots, some contests may not be called for days or longer, particularly where margins are narrow. Control of the Senate could remain uncertain if outcomes are close or if runoff elections are required.