Michigan and Iowa Senate Races Tighten as Cost of Living and Party Loyalty CollideArticle

With Election Day on Tuesday, polls in both states point to close contests, and voters on the ground say frustration over prices doesn’t always translate into switching sides.

Two Midwestern Senate races are drawing national attention. In Michigan and Iowa, candidates are testing how far economic frustration can move voters in a country where party loyalty runs deep. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so each contested seat carries weight for control of the chamber.

BBC Americast reporters have been speaking to voters in both states. Their reporting, along with recent polling, shows two races that look different on the surface but turn on similar questions.

Michigan: an open seat and a split electorate

The Michigan seat is open because Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring. The state backed Donald Trump by about two points in 2024, and forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the race a toss-up. Newsweek

The Democratic nominee is Abdul El-Sayed, who won his party’s primary against a more moderate opponent. He is running on a progressive platform that includes universal healthcare and broad economic reform. BBC reporting describes the candidacy as a notable move toward left-wing populism within the party. The same reporting says his policy positions and past criticism of US foreign policy have drawn scrutiny from some traditionally Democratic groups, including some Jewish and Black voters.

His Republican opponent is former congressman Mike Rogers. According to the BBC, Rogers has opened a campaign office in downtown Detroit in an effort to reach working-class voters. The BBC also reports that former President Barack Obama has campaigned for El-Sayed.

Polling has moved around. A recent Fox News poll gave El-Sayed a one-point edge among likely voters, 50% to 49%, reversing a four-point Rogers lead in August. A Marist survey in late September had El-Sayed ahead 51% to 44% among registered voters. A Glengariff Group poll, by contrast, showed Rogers with 45.8% to El-Sayed’s 44.4%, effectively a tie. Fox News Poll: Michigan voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers +2

Voters appear to have reservations about both men. In Fox’s August poll, 54% of respondents said El-Sayed was too extreme for the state, while 51% said Rogers was too close to President Trump. A Republican pollster who helps run the Fox survey said the race is unusual because short-term political forces favouring Democrats are partly offset by concerns about their candidate. jewishinsider

Iowa: Republican ground, but a real contest

Iowa tells a different story. Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who has held the seat since 2015, is not seeking re-election. The Republican nominee is Representative Ashley Hinson. The Democrat is Josh Turek, a former professional basketball player and Paralympic medalist who serves in the Iowa House. The state is a Republican stronghold, and it hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Iowa’s 2026 Senate race: What to know about Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson +2

BBC correspondents travelling through the state’s agricultural and post-industrial areas heard concerns about rising costs, high fuel prices and federal trade tariffs, which they said have weighed on farmers and rural communities. Even so, many voters who were unhappy with the economy or with national policy said they were sticking with the party they have always backed. For some conservative voters, frustration with Washington was real but not enough to override decades of loyalty or to bridge ideological differences with the Democratic candidate.

The polls reflect that tension, and they disagree with each other. A Marist poll in mid-September gave Turek his largest lead, 50% to 42%. A YouGov poll had him ahead 44% to 43%, while an Emerson poll had Hinson leading 50% to 45%. Voters in the Marist survey still expected Hinson to win. Differences in timing, methods and likely-voter models can account for some of the gap. Iowa’s 2026 Senate race: What to know about Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson +2

Themes shaping both races

Several threads run through the two contests:

• Cost of living. Grocery prices, fuel costs and inflation come up repeatedly in voter conversations in both states. In Michigan’s Fox poll, voters who called the cost of living extremely important favoured El-Sayed by 13 points, though that is one poll among several.
• Turnout. With many voters reluctant to cross party lines, strategists say the outcome may depend on which side gets its supporters to the polls.
• Party identity. The rise of a progressive populist in Michigan, and the persistence of traditional loyalties in Iowa, show both parties working through questions about their message and future direction.

Polls are a snapshot rather than a forecast, and recent surveys in both states have pointed in different directions. In Michigan, the margins sit within typical polling error. In Iowa, the range of results is wider. With the vote just days away, the final outcome will show how far economic worries can shift long-held habits, and where they stop.